Some players experienced misfortune last season, while others were statistically “lucky.” Let’s construct lineups featuring 2025 outliers who are due for regression this year, both positively and negatively. It’s the same concept as buy-low and sell-high candidates, with the law of averages on our side.
Team positive regression
Tyler Shough (NO), QB
Shough was fantasy’s QB8 in dropbacks per start as a rookie; Head coach Kellen Moore is a cheat code for fantasy production, ranking first in no-huddle rate. Shough ranked fourth among QBs in designed rushing yards and third in expected rushing touchdowns (3.9) over his nine starts (Weeks 9-18) despite suffering a significant hip/spleen-area hematoma in Week 15 that curtailed his running over the final three games.
Shough is due for TD% regression (as is the entire Saints offense) while seeing more end-zone attempts, as his 3.1% ranked 35th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks. He gets 10 home games with one of the league’s easiest schedules this season. New Orleans also added WR Jordyn Tyson as a top-10 overall draft pick and sports a potentially strong offensive line. Shough is the QB20 in the expert consensus ranks, but he’s a dark horse to finish among the top 12.
Ashton Jeanty (LV), RB
Jeanty was a fantasy disappointment during his rookie campaign, but it wasn’t his fault. He saw the fewest yards before contact among all qualified backs while playing for one of the league’s worst offenses of the past decade. He showed plenty of ability on plays in which he wasn’t hit behind the line of scrimmage, which was an NFL-low 51.5% of his attempts.
Jeanty owned the league’s highest share of backfield carries inside the 10-yard line (94.1%), but the Raiders scored an NFL-low 20.0% of their offensive touchdowns via rushing; Las Vegas became just the 12th team over the past decade to score at least 80% of its TDs through the air, with regression always following the previous times. Jeanty was the RB17, but he was the RB8 in expected fantasy points per game.
Moreover, Jeanty scored a league-low 30.3% of his fantasy points while playing with a lead. He saw 18.6 opportunities during losses last season but 26.3 during Raiders’ wins; Las Vegas played just 140 snaps with the lead last year, when a whopping 48.6% of Jeanty’s fantasy points came via receiving production.
The Raiders still have question marks, but the offense enters 2026 with major upgrades to the offensive line and coaching (and potentially quarterback). Kolton Miller’s return at left tackle and the addition of center Tyler Linderbaum will be massive. Going from Las Vegas’ previous coaching staff to Klint Kubiak looks like an immeasurable gain; Kubiak offenses have recently led to significant boosts in yards before contact and bring a ton of rushing TD upside.
Jeanty’s fortunes should change greatly in 2026.
Emeka Egbuka (TB), WR
Egbuka was fantasy’s WR3 through the first five weeks of his rookie season before suffering a hamstring injury that he tried to play through. Moreover, Baker Mayfield hurt his oblique in Week 7 and was fighting multiple injuries throughout 2025. Egbuka saw his catchable target rate plummet from Week 7 on, finishing the year with easily the most uncatchable air yards. Egbuka also had the second-lowest end-zone conversion rate. He finished as the WR30, but he was the WR19 in expected fantasy points per game.
Egbuka will benefit from Mike Evans leaving Tampa Bay and a new offensive system that will use far more pre-snap motion. He still has plenty to prove at the NFL level, but Egbuka should see increased opportunities and much better accuracy in 2026. Rome Odunze’s profile is incredibly similar to Egbuka’s (including playing through injuries), and he’s another WR who’s primed for positive regression.
Tyler Warren (IND), TE
Warren was fantasy’s TE4 over his first 13 weeks as a rookie before Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury. His yards per route run also fell from 1.95 to 0.88 after Jones went down. Quarterback play wasn’t Warren’s only misfortune last year, as he also suffered bad luck with touchdowns.
Warren tied for 19th among tight ends with just four TD receptions, but he was the TE4 in red-zone targets (21) and the TE2 in looks inside the 10-yard line (11). The Colts scored a league-high 51.9% of their touchdowns via the rush last season, which will likely change in 2026. Warren owned a 21.1% end-zone target rate when Jones was on the field but saw only one more pay-dirt target after Jones went down. Warren was the TE11 last year, but he was the TE4 in expected fantasy points per game.
Warren was even given three carries at the goal line (more than Breece Hall!), something that could increase with Jones coming off a torn Achilles. Warren will be the biggest beneficiary of Michael Pittman’s vacated RPO targets and Alec Pierce coming off major ankle surgery that’s delayed his return to the field. A Keenan Allen signing remains in play in Indianapolis, but Warren has the upside to finish as fantasy’s top tight end.
Team negative regression
Matthew Stafford (LAR), QB
Stafford quieted all concerns about his back injury while winning the MVP award last season, but he’s a fade in 2026. Stafford averaged 22 touchdown passes over 2023-24 (when he finished as the QB18 and QB26, respectively) before tossing a career-high 46 at age 37. Now he’s another year older with the same herniated disc. Stafford’s 7.7% TD rate last year was the second highest in the NFL over the past five years. Among the 15 QBs who’ve reached a 7% rate in the past decade, none eclipsed that mark the following year, collectively averaging a 2.2% drop and 4.4 fewer fantasy points per game.
Having Davante Adams (who’s also due for TD regression in 2026) in the red zone certainly helps, but Stafford was a major outlier in recording eight more end-zone TD passes (26) than any other QB last season. Los Angeles had more drives reach the red zone last year than any team since 2021. The Rams also had a whopping +11.1% PROE inside the 10-yard line while ostensibly helping Stafford win MVP, so regression is coming for a QB without any rushing upside.
Jonathan Taylor (IND), RB
Taylor was on a historical pace last year as fantasy’s RB1 through 12 weeks before Daniel Jones suffered a broken leg and later a season-ending torn Achilles. His splits were dramatic with a healthy Jones (it should be noted Indy’s schedule also got much harder later in the year), who looks ready for Week 1. While Taylor will see a boost from Jones’ return, he was fortunate to find the end zone so frequently last season.
Taylor led the NFL with 42.7 fantasy points scored from the 1-yard line, blowing away his averages over the previous five years. The Colts led the NFL in rushing TD% (51.9), which typically regresses the following season. Over the past 25 NFL seasons, Indianapolis was one of the most efficient teams at the goal line, scoring a touchdown on a whopping 30-of-32 opportunities. Taylor led the league in touchdowns scored over expected.
Taylor did have the second most red-zone rushes, and Jones may no longer be a threat to steal goal-line TDs coming off the Achilles injury, but Taylor can still score plenty of touchdowns, even with some regression.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), WR
JSN helped win fantasy leagues last season, and he’s worthy of being a top pick in 2026. However, Smith-Njigba undeniably ran pure last year, when he saw almost 200 more catchable air yards than any other receiver. His 33.9% target share was the highest by any player since at least 2013. JSN drew 163 targets of Seattle’s 480 pass attempts! His yards per route run were the third most over the past decade. Smith-Njigba was the WR6 in expected fantasy points per game, behind Chris Olave. He averaged just one red-zone targets per game, and RZ targets are more predictive than air yards and touchdowns.
New OC Brian Fleury comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree, but Klint Kubiak’s departure could prove massive. The Seahawks’ defense will also likely regress, so an increase in volume will help offset a decrease in efficiency. But it’s worth noting everything went just right last season, and the loss of Kubiak looms. I’m still drafting JSN as the fifth pick in Best Ball drafts — huge upside remains over any stretch such as the fantasy playoffs — but history strongly suggests Smith-Njigba is due for some serious regression in 2026.
Trey McBride (ARI), TE
It required Jacoby Brissett taking over for Kyler Murray, but McBride finally caught touchdowns last season, nearly doubling (11) his previous total (six) over his first three years in the league. McBride saw the second-most end-zone targets (18) among tight ends over the past decade. After catching just three of 15 career end-zone targets over three seasons, he secured 7-of-18 in 2025. McBride led all players in routes run, including the red zone — he ran about four more games worth of routes than the next closest tight end and about 22 games worth compared to the average TE1.
The Cardinals led the league with 649 pass attempts, 104 more than league average. Arizona led the NFL in passing yards per game (282.7) with Brissett as starter in Weeks 6-18. Naturally, McBride led all players in fantasy points scored during garbage time. Of course, Arizona projects to be playing from behind with Brissett as the starter once again in 2026, but McBride’s 2025 volume is unsustainable (especially with Michael Wilson emerging as a legit third option). He was less productive when Marvin Harrison was healthy, and the Cardinals now have Mike LaFleur as their play caller.
The market has notedly already priced in McBride’s (and Brock Bowers’) expected regression, as he’s routinely drafted as the second tight end off the board (with Colston Loveland not far behind) despite coming off a historical season. There’s real concern rookie QB Carson Beck could be starting during the fantasy playoffs, but at least Arizona’s schedule looks favorable then.
